In addition to Fourier-processed data layers, minimum, maximum and diurnal change variables were derived. First, the total number of days with temperatures exceeding the threshold was calculated, and then the degree days were calculated by summing up the temperature and subtracting the threshold of those days.
Task 2. Mapping and modelling Task 2. The 57 data layers i. Per training site, the corresponding values were extracted from each raster data layer. As a next step the set of predictor variables was entered into a Random Forest, which is a newly developed ensemble learning technique Breiman, The Random Forest technique was selected over other more classic, statistical based models such as logistic regression because it does not have to obey any statistical constraints and because they can robustly cope with correlation between the predictor variables.
Moreover it outperforms statistical modelling techniques in classification problems Prassad et al. In addition the relative importance of predictor variables can be estimated, thus making Random Forests biologically interpretable.
Random Forests generate k classification trees that are aggregated to produce the final classification. For modelling the presence of Aedes albopictus, the number of trees k was set to Based on the variable importance a step-wise backward reduction of the number of variables was performed to avoid an overly complex model.
Although including all the variables will not affect the model performance, it will hamper its interpretation. In Random Forests, the accuracy of each model is automatically measured using the so-called out-of-bag error.
The out-of-bag error of a Random Forest is calculated as follows: 1. For each tree a. This bootstrap sample consists of approx. These out-of-bag elements are classified once the tree is generated and serve as test set 3. The temperature and rainfall variables were standardised into an interval between [0,] prior to modelling.
Following expert advice Medlock, Schaffner, and Scholte; personal communication sigmoidal membership functions were determined. For each parameter, the parameters in Table 5 were used. For a sigmoidal function, the lower threshold indicates that below this limit suitability is zero while values above the upper limit indicate maximum suitability. For a symmetrical sigmoidal function, the maximum suitability is reached between the second and third threshold value, while below and above the lowest and highest threshold value suitability will be zero.
This way, each individual membership function will transform the original data layer on a per-pixel basis into a suitability map scaled between [0,] for Aedes albopictus. Table 5. The summed output is then again scaled to the interval [0,] and represents the combined suitability map for Aedes albopictus. The mean monthly climate data for temperature was converted to mean weekly temperature using a continuous piecewise quadratic function, preserving the mean maximum temperature over each monthly period.
The GIS model, as detailed in Medlock et al. Secondly, it calculates the predicted number of weeks elapsing between first egg hatching and possible adult die-off in early winter. Input parameters: Autumn diapause The actual timing of the onset of diapause in newly produced eggs appears to be correlated with specific critical photoperiod thresholds. A critical daylight threshold of 13 to 14 hours was reported in strains of Aedes albopictus from Shanghai and Nagasaki Wang , Mori et al.
In Italy, some eggs were able to hatch with a day length of 10 hours Toma et al. For the purpose of this model, the more common critical photoperiod of Spring egg hatching Studies by Toma et al. These parameters were used to simulate egg hatching in spring. A comparison between Europe, the USA and Japan The current distribution of Aedes albopictus is within the humid temperate climate zones, Cfa and Cfb, in the northern hemisphere.
In this zone, presence data from the USA and findings by Kobayashi et al. These countries were selected because it has been shown that for both the USA and for Europe the main introduction of Aedes albopictus was through the import of scrap tyres from Japan Benedict et al.
Also calculated was the temperature sum when the threshold was exceeded degree days. This is the same procedure that Kobayashi et al. The annual mean temperature was converted into isotherms, and the number of points falling within each isotherm zone was determined. Modelling the impact of climate change scenarios Based on selected IPCC climate-change models and scenarios assessing maximum and minimal impact, a set of predictive temperature and rainfall data layers was computed by Wint et al.
V-borne project report, ECDC, July that reflect potential changes in the short and long term Since expert variables used in the MCDA model are all derived from temperature and rainfall, the analysis can be repeated using the prospective variables.
Formats and legends will be discussed with ECDC staff by e-mail. The project budget does not include the printing of maps. The different map outputs are shown in the annex to this document and are referred to as follows in the discussion below: Figure 1. Current distribution of Aedes albopictus in Europe. Figure 2. Current distribution of Aedes albopictus in the Mediterranean basin. Figure 3. Current and historical distribution of Aedes albopictus in Central Europe.
Figure 4. Distribution risk map for Aedes albopictus, statistical model. Figure 5. Figure 6. Potential weeks of activity of Aedes albopictus in Europe — spring hatching to adult die-off. Figure 7. Prospective impact of climate change on Aedes albopictus distribution in Europe. Figure 7a. Minimal impact: short-term change scenario. Figure 7b. Minimal impact: long-term change scenario. Figure 7c. Maximum impact: short-term change scenario. Figure 7d. Maximum impact: long-term change scenario. In addition, a table with entomological data was produced: Table 6 see Annex.
Entomological data on surveillance and control of Aedes albopictus and other mosquitoes, and source of information, for European states. Confirmed positive municipalities or locations are based almost entirely on surveillance data using ovitraps traps that monitor egg laying. In a few cases, experts could confirm presence based on adult specimen and despite the lack of a surveillance system neither active nor passive ; these cases were included in the dataset.
In contrast, when experts strongly suspected the presence of this mosquito species in a certain area but had no actual data, these suspected Aedes albopictus-positive areas were not included in the dataset and maps , but were mentioned and discussed in the comments below.
These are either members of the European Union or located in, or close to, geographical Europe e. Cyprus, Madeira, Azores. Major findings see Figures 1, 2, 3 and Table 6 : The presence or absence of Aedes albopictus could not be assessed for 24 states. For 6 states Belarus, Iceland, Malta, Moldova, Macedonia, and Ukraine no feedback was received from contacted scientists.
For the remaining 28 states, general information on mosquito fauna is sufficient to assess presence or absence of Aedes albopictus, mainly on the basis of regular mosquito surveillances or studies in large parts of the territories. Over the last five years, 12 countries have implemented specific surveillance for Aedes albopictus and other exotic mosquitoes.
Some countries maintain surveillance at national and regular levels, both actively i. Belgium, France, Netherlands or passively i. United Kingdom, Serbia. As a result, Aedes albopictus was observed at least once in 16 states, but the quality of information and data varies, from national and regular surveillance to a total absence of surveillance.
Comments per country The comments below focus on the most important historical introduction events and include the latest available information. Italy Note regarding data collection: Information about Aedes albopictus in Italy is vast6. However, precise data on Aedes albopictus distribution at the municipality level is scattered. This is mostly due to the fact that mosquito surveillance activities are carried out only in a limited number of areas, and, more importantly, they are not coordinated nationally.
Instead, when mosquito surveys are organised, they are coordinated mostly at the municipal or regional level, carried out either by the National Institute of Health ISS, Rome , local public health units USLs , municipalities, universities, or private PCO companies.
Since information on the presence or absence of the Asian tiger mosquito in Italy is so scattered, information was collected from 1 official publications in scientific journals, on municipality websites, or in local newspapers if they mentioned confirmed identification of the mosquito species ; 2 existing Aedes albopictus surveillance datasets; 3 contacts with colleagues involved in surveillance activities at the National Institute of Health ISS, Rome , local public health units AUSLs , universities, municipalities, private PCO companies; and 4 from a handful of Aedes albopictus experts with first-hand confirmation of Aedes albopictus presence from the field but without official surveillance.
A large number of scientists and experts contributed to this project. Almost all data are based on results from active ovitrap-based and passive surveillance and confirmed diagnoses.
Although the authors tried to be as thorough and conscientious as possible while acquiring data, it is recognised that they did not have access to all available information, and efforts continue to complete this database. The only Region in Italy that appears to be entirely free of Aedes albopictus is the Aosta Region in the north-western area of Italy, in the Alps.
All other Regions have infested municipalities, although some Regions are more heavily infested than others. The most infested areas are those in the north-east Veneto Region and Friuli-Venezia- Giulia Region , the area between the Alps and the Apennines large parts of Lombardia and Emilia Romagna Regions , and the coastal areas of central Italy.
In these areas, not only are many of the municipalities infested, but estimated mosquito population densities are also often higher compared to other areas. Generically speaking, Aedes albopictus is present in many coastal municipalities in northern and central Italy. The delta areas Po River delta and the delta areas of the Veneto Region and the Friuli- Venezia-Giulia Region and areas up to metres in altitude in northern Italy are most heavily infested.
This is shown by the proportion of infested municipalities in the three most heavily infested regions. In the Friuli- Venezia-Giulia Region, out of Almost all areas in mountainous areas above meters above sea-level are free of Aedes albopictus. However, several experts mentioned that in the Pre-Alps and the Apennines, Aedes albopictus can sometimes be found in small populations in villages at altitudes of m and above, located in areas with roads that lead from heavily infested areas in lower elevations to regions in higher altitudes.
It is hypothesised that Aedes albopictus is transported by humans through road-traffic from heavily infested areas, and that small populations may become established in those villages, but that they are not likely to reach high population densities. Relatively few reports on the presence of Aedes albopictus originate from the southern areas of Italy, although several experts claim that it is very likely that many coastal areas in regions of Sicily, Calabria, Puglia, Basilicata, Campania, Molise, Abbruzzo, and Sardinia are infested.
This assumed under-reporting is probably due to reduced surveillance activities in these areas. When acquiring observational entomological data, the authors also asked for information on control practices of Aedes albopictus and mosquito control in general. It could be argued that control actions might result in eradication of the species in a certain area, and therefore affect the distribution of the species. However, eradication of the species due to control actions in Europe was successful in a limited number of cases mostly in France, but also in a few cases in Italy but only in cases where population density was low.
Generally speaking, since control of Aedes albopictus in Italy occurs almost exclusively at locations where the species is abundant and causes biting nuisance, control actions generally reduce population sizes rather than eradicate the species from that location. As a result, it is hypothesised that control actions generally do not affect the distribution of Aedes albopictus in Italy. An active surveillance programme for Aedes albopictus and other exotic mosquitoes was established in ; it is organised at the national level and funded by the state health authority.
Surveillance was strengthened in , when a chikungunya virus outbreak occurred in French overseas departments. In and , no specimens were found. Therefore, a viable wild population could not become established. However, the global information level is arguably scarce for the country. Istria since Schaffner, personal communication ; first complaints about nuisance were registered in Technical Catalog - Power Quality Portfolio.
Automotive Solutions. Building Technology - Clean grids for modern buildings. Ecosine - Passive Harmonic Mitigation Portfolio. Ecosine active. Ecosine active - V. Ecosine active - Digital Broadcasting. Ecosine active - Improved network quality in television studios. Ecosine active - Paper Industry. Ecosine active - Road Tunnels. Ecosine active - Supermarket. Ecosine active - Tschuggen Express. Ecosine active Environmental parameters and conditions.
Ecosine active sync - Bedienungs- und Installationsanleitung v1. Ecosine active sync - notice d'utilisation et d'installation v1. Ecosine active sync - user and installation manual v1. Ecosine active with Germanischer Lloyd. Ecosine economy line - user and installation manual Feb English original instructions. Ecosine evo - manuale d'uso e installazione rev07 traduzione user and installation manual Italian translation. Ecosine evo - notice d'utilisation et d'installation rev07 traduction user and installation manual French translation.
Ecosine evo - user and installation manual rev08 English original instructions. This text will help to define development objectives, understand the development process, identify potential barriers to development, design candidate development interventions, and analyze the multidimensional impact of theory, empirical research and policy analysis within the study of economic development.
You will be guided to the product download page immediately once you complete the payment. If you have any questions, or would like a receive a sample chapter before your purchase, please contact us via email : info testbankfire.
Go to testbankfire. If it not available in website, you can send email to. Also, you can read How to Instant download files after payment.
View all posts by bigcoro. You are commenting using your WordPress. The study attempts to answer one critical question: has the world achieved its number one … Expand. This article explores the theoretical link and transmission mechanism through which official development assistance ODA or foreign aid affects poverty.
The study also presents some major debates on … Expand. View 2 excerpts, cites background. Competitiveness, economic growth and human development in Latin American and Caribbean countries Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the performance and the relationship between competitiveness, real gross domestic product GDP growth and human development in 20 countries of the … Expand.
Foreign aid and poverty reduction: A review of international literature. Cogent Social Sciences. Abstract This main objective of this paper is to present a synthesis of the empirical literature on the effectiveness of foreign aid on poverty reduction. This is done through a review of empirical … Expand.
0コメント